Stop and Predict — "What Happens Next?"

Before and during a read-aloud, the child guesses what will happen — then reads on to find out if they were right. Prediction turns passive listening into detective work: the child is always thinking one step ahead and checking their guess against the story.

Before opening the book, do a quick picture walk — look at the cover and title, flip through a few illustrations, and ask “What do you think this is about? Who’s this? Where are they?” Keep it to a minute; don’t spoil the whole plot.
As you read, stop at two or three cliff-hanger moments — a page-turn, a knock at the door, a problem appearing — and ask “What do you think happens next?”
Always follow with the key question: “What makes you think that?” This turns a wild guess into real thinking, where the child uses clues from the words and the pictures.
Read on, then close the loop: “Were we right? What surprised us?” A wrong guess is a win — “The author tricked us! Good thinking.”
At the end, ask one prediction beyond the book: “What do you think happens to her tomorrow?”

Variation: predict from the cover alone before any reading, then check at the end how close you were. Or offer two choices (“Will she open the box or run away?”). With a familiar book, predict from memory (“you know what’s coming — what is it?”) to build recall instead.

Requirements

Space: Any comfortable reading spot
Surface: None needed
Materials: Any picture book with a little suspense or a clear problem; books the child has not heard before are best for true prediction
Participants: 1 adult + 1 child; small groups work well, since children love debating what comes next
Supervision: Light

Rationale & Objective

Predicting is how a young listener stays mentally active — it recruits inference (reading clues), comprehension monitoring (checking a guess), and engagement all at once. The “predict, then confirm or revise” loop is a concrete, age-appropriate form of comprehension monitoring, which the National Reading Panel (2000) identified as one of its evidence-based comprehension strategies (alongside question generation, story structure, and graphic organizers). The picture-walk preview comes from Fountas & Pinnell’s (1996) guided-reading “book introduction”: previewing cover and illustrations lets a child marshal background knowledge and vocabulary before the story begins — crucial at the listening level, where a 5-year-old comprehends far above their decoding level. Harvey & Goudvis (2017) treat predicting and inferring as twin strategies of proficient readers. The UK EYFS Comprehension goal names this skill outright: “anticipate — where appropriate — key events in stories.”

Progress Indicators

Early: guesses unrelated to the story (“a dinosaur!”) or simply restates the current picture; can’t say why; loses the thread after guessing
Developing: makes a plausible guess about the next event when prompted; gives a simple reason when asked (“because he’s sad”); notices afterward whether a prediction was right or wrong
Proficient: predicts using clues from both words and pictures; explains the reasoning (“she’s hiding the present, so it’s a surprise”); revises happily when the story goes another way; predicts from the cover before reading
Advanced: infers beyond the obvious (a hidden motive, an upcoming twist); justifies with specific evidence; predicts how the problem will be solved and how the story ends; spontaneously wonders aloud while listening

Safety Notes

Keep predicting light and occasional — stopping on every page fragments the story and frustrates a 5-year-old; two or three good stops is plenty
Treat every guess as valuable and never make the child feel “wrong” — prediction only works when it is safe to be surprised
For an anxious child, keep the suspense playful rather than building dread on scary pages
A quiet seated activity with no physical risk; just watch for fatigue and stop while it is still fun

Hints

Playfulness: play it up like a mystery — narrow your eyes, whisper “I have a theory…,” and gasp at the page-turn. Keep a running scoreboard of “times the author tricked us.”
Sustain interest: fresh books fuel real prediction, so rotate new titles from the library and save familiar books for memory-prediction. Let the child pause YOU when they have a prediction, not only when you ask.
Common mistake: skipping the “what makes you think that?” step — without it, prediction is just guessing and builds little comprehension. And never reveal you’re testing; it’s a shared game of wondering where “wrong” guesses are celebrated.
Limited space / no equipment: none needed — predict the ending of a TV episode, what’s around the next corner on a walk, or what happens next in a story you tell from memory. The thinking is identical.
Cross-domain: justifying predictions builds reasoning and oral language; cause-and-effect thinking supports early science; two-choice predictions build decision-making; predicting feelings builds empathy.
Progression: predict from the cover → predict the very next event at a cliff-hanger → give a reason → predict how the whole problem is solved → revise a prediction mid-story when new clues appear → infer hidden motives and twists.

Sources

National Reading Panel (2000). Report of the National Reading Panel: Teaching Children to Read (NIH Pub. No. 00-4769). NICHD — comprehension monitoring and strategy instruction
Fountas, I. C. & Pinnell, G. S. (1996). Guided Reading: Good First Teaching for All Children. Heinemann — book introduction / picture walk
Harvey, S. & Goudvis, A. (2017). Strategies That Work: Teaching Comprehension for Engagement, Understanding, and Building Knowledge, Grades K–8 (3rd ed.). Stenhouse
Common Core RL.K.1 (ask and answer questions) and RL.K.7 (relationship between illustrations and the story)
UK EYFS — Comprehension ELG (anticipate, where appropriate, key events in stories)
Head Start ELOF — Goal P-LIT 5 (asks and answers questions about a book read aloud)
Teaching Strategies GOLD Objective 18a (interacts during read-alouds and book conversations)