Sure, Maybe, or No Idea?

A guessing game in which the child says how sure they are before finding out whether they were right — and learns that “I’m not sure, I need another clue” is a smart answer.

  1. Make three sureness signs together: a big thumbs-up for “Sure!”, a flat wobbly hand for “Maybe”, and a shrug for “No idea.” Practise them once with silly faces.
  2. Set up a mystery. Put an object in a pillowcase or bag to feel without looking, or cover a picture with paper so only a small corner shows.
  3. The child makes a guess (“I think it’s a spoon”) and then shows a sureness sign.
  4. Offer the choice: “Do you want to lock in your answer, or get another clue first?” A clue might be a longer feel, a bigger part of the picture, or a hint from you.
  5. Reveal. Then talk briefly about the sureness, not just the answer: “You said Maybe and asked for a clue — that helped.” or “You were Sure and it was something else. Surprising! What tricked you?”
  6. Play 5–8 mysteries, mixing easy ones with genuinely hard ones.

Variation: play with sounds behind your back (keys, a zip, pouring rice), with “which jar has more?” when the amounts are close, or with a memory tray — “How sure are you that you remember everything that was on it?”

Requirements

  • Space: Any small space — table, sofa, or floor
  • Surface: Any
  • Materials: A pillowcase or opaque bag; 6–10 familiar household objects; or a few pictures and a sheet of paper to cover them
  • Participants: 1 adult + 1 child; siblings can take turns hiding and guessing
  • Supervision: Light — the adult chooses the mysteries and leads the short chat after each reveal

Rationale & Objective

Monitoring begins with a feeling — “I’m not sure” — and the ability to notice and act on that feeling emerges during the preschool years. Lyons & Ghetti (2011) found that preschoolers’ confidence ratings tracked their actual accuracy, with clear improvement between ages 3 and 5, and Coughlin et al. (2015) showed that 3- to 5-year-olds asked for help more often on exactly the items they felt unsure about. Destan et al. (2014) found that 5-year-olds can already use such judgments to guide what they do next. Young children are nonetheless typically overconfident about their own performance (Schneider, 2008), so gentle practice at comparing “how sure I felt” with “what turned out to be true” helps calibrate that inner gauge. Roebers (2017) describes this monitoring-then-control loop as the meeting point of metacognition and executive function — the same loop a school-age child uses to decide whether to reread, double-check, or ask for help.

Progress Indicators

  • Early: always signals “Sure!” whatever the difficulty; treats the sign as part of the guess rather than a separate judgement; surprised but uninterested when wrong
  • Developing: uses “Maybe” or “No idea” on very hard items; sometimes asks for another clue when offered; notices when a “Sure” turned out wrong
  • Proficient: sureness usually matches difficulty — confident on easy items, unsure on hard ones; chooses a clue when unsure and locks in when sure
  • Advanced: explains what makes them sure or unsure (“it’s bumpy but lots of things are bumpy”); says “I’m not sure” in everyday situations and asks for help or checks

Safety Notes

  • Check the mystery bag yourself — nothing sharp, breakable, or small enough to be a choking hazard for younger children
  • Never tease a confident wrong answer. Overconfidence is normal at this age, and being laughed at teaches children to hide their guesses
  • Equally, do not praise only correct answers — praise the match between sureness and outcome, and the decision to ask for a clue
  • An anxious child may answer “No idea” to everything to avoid being wrong. Use very easy items for a while so “Sure” is safe, and keep the game brief
  • Persistent, distressing fear of being wrong across many situations is worth mentioning to your paediatrician or the child’s teacher

Hints

  • Playfulness: add a drum roll before every reveal and a game-show voice — “Is that your final answer?” Let the child invent their own body signs for the three levels
  • Sustain interest: let the child fill the bag for you and judge your sureness. Change the sense each time — touch, hearing, smell (cinnamon, orange peel, soap), or a zoomed-in photo on your phone
  • Common mistake: making every item easy, so “Sure” is always right and there is nothing to monitor. Include a few that are honestly ambiguous — two objects that feel alike
  • Limited space: needs no materials at all with riddles (“I’m thinking of an animal with stripes…”) — the child guesses, signals sureness, and can ask for one more clue
  • Cross-domain: describing textures and shapes (vocabulary and sensory processing); “which has more?” estimates (numeracy); naming the feeling of not knowing (emotional literacy)
  • Progression: two levels (sure / not sure) → three levels → choose between locking in and taking a clue → explain what made you sure → predict before a task (“how sure are you that you can hop ten times?”) and compare with the result

Sources

  • Lyons, K. E. & Ghetti, S. (2011). “The Development of Uncertainty Monitoring in Early Childhood.” Child Development, 82(6), 1778–1787
  • Coughlin, C., Hembacher, E., Lyons, K. E. & Ghetti, S. (2015). “Introspection on uncertainty and judicious help-seeking during the preschool years.” Developmental Science, 18(6), 957–971
  • Destan, N., Hembacher, E., Ghetti, S. & Roebers, C. M. (2014). “Early metacognitive abilities: The interplay of monitoring and control processes in 5- to 7-year-old children.” Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, 126, 213–228
  • Schneider, W. (2008). “The Development of Metacognitive Knowledge in Children and Adolescents: Major Trends and Implications for Education.” Mind, Brain, and Education, 2(3), 114–121
  • Roebers, C. M. (2017). “Executive function and metacognition: Towards a unifying framework of cognitive self-regulation.” Developmental Review, 45, 31–51
  • Head Start ELOF — Approaches to Learning (Cognitive Self-Regulation)